MODEL VERDICT
Mercer International Inc. (MERC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $1.43 | -21.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $5.21 | +187.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $20.89 | +1054.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $1.43 | -21.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.12 | +790.5% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.37 | 4.65 | 3.14 | 5.33 | 1.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.64 | 12.25 | 4.29 | 78.28 | 28.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.71 | 5.86 | 3.34 | 223.74 | 89.20 |
| P/FCF | 25.41 | 7.22 | 4.26 | 73.79 | 30.37 |
| P/FFO | 4.12 | 3.05 | 1.98 | 6.91 | 2.20 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.62 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 8.64 | 5.28 | 3.65 | 20.32 | 7.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0.92 | 1.46 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates MERC's fair value at $16.12 vs the current price of $1.81, implying +790.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.81 (P10) to $4.01 (P90), with a median of $2.75.
MERC's current P/E of -1.4x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -111.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover MERC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.25 (range: $2.25 — $2.25), implying +24.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MERC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.