MODEL VERDICT
Magnite, Inc. (MGNI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $22.52 | +64.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.81 | +0.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $38.52 | +180.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $11.55 | -15.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $13.67 | -0.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $15.82 | +15.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $12.03 | -12.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.77 | -36.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $34.29 | +149.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $11.61 | -15.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $801.26 | +5740.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11705.53 | 99.50 | 17.08 | 35000.00 | 20173.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.44 | 22.61 | 18.14 | 79.89 | 24.42 |
| P/FCF | 17.15 | 13.31 | 6.80 | 35.50 | 10.88 |
| P/FFO | 25.70 | 16.32 | 12.59 | 64.58 | 19.85 |
| P/AFFO | 28.13 | 25.63 | 18.45 | 48.20 | 12.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.38 | 2.71 | 1.78 | 7.78 | 2.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.68 | 3.50 | 2.06 | 13.40 | 3.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGNI's fair value at $801.26 vs the current price of $13.72, implying +5740.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $801.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.16 (P10) to $2505.99 (P90), with a median of $768.51.
MGNI's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -64.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11705.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover MGNI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $16.00 — $20.00), implying +31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MGNI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.