MODEL VERDICT
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $130.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $133.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $126.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $120.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $124.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $191.46 | +47.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $132.19 | +1.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $165.93 | +27.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $57.57 | -55.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $154.45 | +18.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $52.38 | -59.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $111.85 | -14.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $214.56 | +64.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $209.67 | +61.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $165.89 | +27.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $57.85 | -55.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $132.33 | +1.7% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $77 | $108 | $139 | $170 | $201 |
| Conservative (8%) | $80 | $111 | $143 | $175 | $207 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $83 | $116 | $149 | $182 | $215 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $86 | $120 | $155 | $189 | $224 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.49 | 6.75 | 2.68 | 8.78 | 2.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.26 | 6.11 | 3.14 | 10.07 | 2.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.14 | 5.84 | 3.07 | 9.19 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 15.42 | 13.29 | 7.24 | 28.97 | 9.15 |
| P/FFO | 6.17 | 6.57 | 2.60 | 8.27 | 2.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.15 | 0.64 | 1.59 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 6.35 | 6.66 | 2.65 | 8.46 | 2.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.63 | 1.57 | 0.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MHO's fair value at $132.33 vs the current price of $130.09, implying +1.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $132.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $118.07 (P10) to $140.44 (P90), with a median of $129.25.
MHO's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 11.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -21.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
10 analysts cover MHO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $165.00 (range: $165.00 — $165.00), implying +26.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MHO trades at the 1580th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MHO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1600.0% to approximately $151. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.