MODEL VERDICT
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $174.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $174.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $174.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $174.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $174.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $157.64 | -9.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $92.06 | -47.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $155.75 | -10.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $264.49 | +52.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $157.24 | -9.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $162.88 | -6.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $144.51 | -17.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.83 | -3.6% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $150 | $167 | $185 | $203 | $220 |
| Conservative (12%) | $156 | $175 | $193 | $212 | $230 |
| Base Case (19.1%) | $166 | $185 | $205 | $224 | $244 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $175 | $196 | $216 | $237 | $257 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.71 | 27.40 | 24.69 | 32.67 | 2.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.72 | 21.01 | 17.96 | 23.62 | 1.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.51 | 19.02 | 13.98 | 21.06 | 2.24 |
| P/FCF | 25.14 | 26.43 | 19.28 | 29.35 | 4.15 |
| P/FFO | 21.82 | 21.92 | 19.01 | 23.83 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 24.83 | 24.87 | 22.27 | 28.93 | 2.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.17 | 7.64 | 5.38 | 7.95 | 0.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.80 | 4.03 | 2.73 | 4.50 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MMC's fair value at $167.83 vs the current price of $174.06, implying -3.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $155.85 (P10) to $189.37 (P90), with a median of $172.61.
MMC's current P/E of 21.3x compares to the industry median of 19.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +10.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
26 analysts cover MMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $206.75 (range: $190.00 — $236.00), implying +18.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (17), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MMC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1560.0% to approximately $201. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.