MODEL VERDICT
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $68.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $70.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $70.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $68.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $58.49 | -5.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $64.31 | +3.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $54.15 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $84.46 | +36.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $64.60 | +4.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $83.97 | +35.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $73.16 | +18.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $80.65 | +30.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $54.55 | -12.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $84.41 | +36.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $89.80 | +44.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 | $73 |
| Conservative (7%) | $57 | $61 | $66 | $70 | $75 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $59 | $63 | $68 | $73 | $77 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 97.84 | 51.19 | 41.38 | 322.19 | 110.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 61.48 | 43.47 | 29.27 | 150.81 | 45.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.14 | 22.78 | 18.09 | 32.95 | 4.96 |
| P/FCF | 35.38 | 30.69 | 24.71 | 58.80 | 12.78 |
| P/FFO | 23.46 | 24.42 | 15.99 | 31.73 | 4.81 |
| P/TBV | 10.81 | 9.96 | 8.01 | 13.75 | 2.22 |
| P/AFFO | 39.59 | 30.73 | 27.88 | 64.51 | 16.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.44 | 1.85 | 4.16 | 0.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.30 | 3.52 | 1.76 | 4.23 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MMSI's fair value at $89.80 vs the current price of $62.01, implying +44.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $89.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.05 (P10) to $112.91 (P90), with a median of $89.52.
MMSI's current P/E of 29.1x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +14.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 97.8x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
13 analysts cover MMSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $95.00 (range: $78.00 — $107.00), implying +53.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.0% is 4.0 percentage points above the 6-year average (5.0%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$117. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MMSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8790.0% to approximately $117. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.