MODEL VERDICT
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $34.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $32.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $32.65 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $32.35 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $31.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $34.95 | +2.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $39.67 | +15.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $40.22 | +17.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $23.90 | -30.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $36.28 | +5.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $34.71 | +1.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.84 | -7.1% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $23 | $29 | $34 | $39 | $44 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $29 | $35 | $40 | $46 |
| Base Case (-3.8%) | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.58 | 10.60 | 7.06 | 13.85 | 2.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.36 | 9.03 | 7.29 | 15.06 | 2.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.97 | 7.94 | 6.65 | 13.06 | 2.20 |
| P/FCF | 17.70 | 10.99 | 5.50 | 61.98 | 19.90 |
| P/FFO | 9.04 | 8.97 | 5.66 | 11.72 | 1.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.08 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.44 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 10.20 | 9.98 | 6.38 | 13.54 | 2.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 1.03 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.01 | 2.20 | 1.51 | 2.55 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPB's fair value at $31.84 vs the current price of $34.26, implying -7.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.79 (P10) to $35.77 (P90), with a median of $33.27.
MPB's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -2.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover MPB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying +2.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MPB trades at the 4810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MPB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 510.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.