MODEL VERDICT
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $1583.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $1632.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $1468.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $1353.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $1353.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $801.80 | -49.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $522.96 | -67.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $811.25 | -48.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $625.93 | -60.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $934.66 | -41.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $650.13 | -58.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $192.69 | -87.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $516.19 | -67.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $520.67 | -67.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $965.10 | -39.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $625.94 | -60.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $782.16 | -50.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 104× | 114× | 124× (Current) | 134× | 144× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $1482 | $1625 | $1768 | $1910 | $2053 |
| Conservative (19%) | $1580 | $1732 | $1884 | $2036 | $2188 |
| Base Case (29.5%) | $1717 | $1882 | $2047 | $2213 | $2378 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $1854 | $2032 | $2210 | $2388 | $2567 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 67.92 | 72.01 | 16.17 | 104.64 | 31.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 67.04 | 62.78 | 31.92 | 101.30 | 23.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 62.11 | 57.94 | 29.82 | 94.83 | 21.32 |
| P/FCF | 72.74 | 68.16 | 44.99 | 105.11 | 21.15 |
| P/FFO | 61.46 | 65.80 | 15.85 | 93.80 | 27.37 |
| P/TBV | 13.54 | 12.52 | 9.29 | 19.09 | 3.89 |
| P/AFFO | 113.46 | 88.99 | 17.23 | 302.64 | 94.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.45 | 12.40 | 9.19 | 18.99 | 3.88 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.45 | 15.69 | 9.53 | 20.39 | 3.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPWR's fair value at $782.16 vs the current price of $1583.48, implying -50.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $782.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $680.14 (P10) to $886.00 (P90), with a median of $782.72.
MPWR's current P/E of 124.2x compares to the industry median of 63.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +95.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 67.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover MPWR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1615.00 (range: $1200.00 — $2000.00), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MPWR trades at the 8300th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (67.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MPWR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4130.0% to approximately $930. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.