MODEL VERDICT
Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $5.26 | -16.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $9.08 | +44.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $9.21 | +46.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $16.84 | +168.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $5.27 | -15.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $1.27 | -79.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.79 | +88.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (-13.7%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 97.74 | 26.00 | 7.43 | 413.45 | 158.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 125.88 | 39.01 | 17.42 | 381.55 | 153.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 122.75 | 39.01 | 9.11 | 381.55 | 155.82 |
| P/FCF | 14.96 | 16.52 | 7.08 | 21.53 | 5.82 |
| P/TBV | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.96 | 0.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.96 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.23 | 5.67 | 4.46 | 19.92 | 5.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRCC's fair value at $11.79 vs the current price of $6.27, implying +88.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.24 (P10) to $25.67 (P90), with a median of $13.25.
MRCC's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a +19.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 97.7x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover MRCC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +27.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MRCC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.