MODEL VERDICT
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $284.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $287.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $276.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $261.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $258.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $329.05 | +15.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $62.58 | -78.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $108.50 | -61.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $103.66 | -63.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $106.37 | -62.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $128.14 | -54.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $134.37 | -52.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $128.22 | -54.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $180.34 | -36.5% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 88.18 | 98.77 | 10.19 | 145.00 | 60.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 67.43 | 73.63 | 20.06 | 102.41 | 37.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.92 | 50.79 | 26.13 | 275.87 | 87.23 |
| P/FCF | 46.09 | 44.52 | 23.83 | 68.17 | 18.16 |
| P/FFO | 279.92 | 58.73 | 9.01 | 1394.86 | 547.22 |
| P/TBV | 24.85 | 13.31 | 9.34 | 75.79 | 28.53 |
| P/AFFO | 89.37 | 61.33 | 9.52 | 241.58 | 88.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.56 | 8.49 | 5.32 | 12.21 | 2.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.94 | 9.09 | 3.50 | 13.10 | 3.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTSI's fair value at $180.34 vs the current price of $284.18, implying -36.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $180.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.09 (P10) to $233.16 (P90), with a median of $178.25.
MTSI's current P/E of -389.3x compares to the industry median of 79.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -592.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 88.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $254.00 (range: $175.00 — $300.00), implying -10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MTSI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.