MODEL VERDICT
Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $28.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $29.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $29.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $29.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $30.16 | +10.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $28.34 | +3.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $37.21 | +35.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $24.78 | -9.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $34.89 | +27.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $25.67 | -6.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $76.33 | +178.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $20.98 | -23.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $16.90 | -38.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $37.21 | +35.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $24.78 | -9.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.70 | -2.5% | 100% | 79 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| Conservative (14%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Base Case (22.1%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.96 | 27.51 | 19.52 | 32.73 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.09 | 20.11 | 14.46 | 21.60 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.01 | 12.77 | 11.78 | 14.92 | 1.03 |
| P/FCF | 75.22 | 25.72 | 18.44 | 322.85 | 121.47 |
| P/FFO | 16.05 | 16.21 | 12.40 | 19.39 | 2.18 |
| P/TBV | 12.61 | 8.41 | 6.41 | 30.28 | 8.32 |
| P/AFFO | 31.21 | 26.21 | 20.38 | 63.07 | 15.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.35 | 3.22 | 2.54 | 4.36 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.07 | 2.04 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MWA's fair value at $26.70 vs the current price of $27.39, implying -2.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.33 (P10) to $45.08 (P90), with a median of $32.72.
MWA's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -26.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover MWA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $33.33 (range: $32.00 — $35.00), implying +21.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.8% is 6.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.2%), with a Z-score of +2.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$29. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MWA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 560.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.