MODEL VERDICT
First Western Financial, Inc. (MYFW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $12.90 | -50.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $33.09 | +27.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $34.37 | +32.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $1.95 | -92.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $12.90 | -50.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $22.12 | -14.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.52 | -21.1% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $26 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Base Case (-2.9%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $22 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.89 | 16.31 | 6.35 | 36.72 | 9.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.88 | 6.14 | 3.68 | 16.50 | 4.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.59 | 5.42 | 2.83 | 12.34 | 3.46 |
| P/FCF | 5.52 | 5.33 | 1.56 | 9.87 | 3.45 |
| P/FFO | 13.60 | 11.53 | 6.08 | 25.37 | 6.20 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 1.34 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 16.21 | 13.18 | 6.37 | 36.70 | 9.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.68 | 1.14 | 0.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.51 | 1.07 | 2.47 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates MYFW's fair value at $20.52 vs the current price of $26.00, implying -21.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.13 (P10) to $22.55 (P90), with a median of $20.31.
MYFW's current P/E of 29.9x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +101.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover MYFW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying -15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MYFW trades at the 9210th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MYFW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.