MODEL VERDICT
Newmont Corporation (NEM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $108.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $120.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $116.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $113.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $120.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $98.30 | -9.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $174.11 | +60.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $132.80 | +22.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $142.14 | +30.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $148.83 | +37.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $144.68 | +33.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $68.16 | -37.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $123.22 | +13.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $112.57 | +3.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $132.80 | +22.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $142.14 | +30.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.13 | +29.0% | 100% | 73 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $88 | $101 | $115 | $128 | $142 |
| Conservative (8%) | $90 | $104 | $118 | $132 | $146 |
| Base Case (12.8%) | $94 | $108 | $123 | $137 | $152 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $98 | $113 | $128 | $143 | $158 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.91 | 15.58 | 11.42 | 42.48 | 12.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.01 | 12.19 | 9.16 | 231.70 | 88.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.37 | 8.63 | 5.56 | 9.75 | 1.40 |
| P/FCF | 68.30 | 18.92 | 13.48 | 358.86 | 128.33 |
| P/FFO | 12.54 | 9.31 | 6.35 | 31.08 | 8.60 |
| P/TBV | 2.15 | 2.14 | 1.33 | 3.53 | 0.76 |
| P/AFFO | 22.98 | 14.24 | 8.94 | 72.72 | 24.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.19 | 3.25 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.57 | 3.29 | 2.30 | 5.01 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEM's fair value at $140.13 vs the current price of $108.62, implying +29.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $118.08 (P10) to $255.23 (P90), with a median of $173.36.
NEM's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -18.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
36 analysts cover NEM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.50 (range: $97.00 — $176.00), implying +26.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 30.5% is 28.9 percentage points above the 5-year average (20.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$85. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NEM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (20.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2170.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.