MODEL VERDICT
NeoGenomics, Inc. (NEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.83 | CURRENT | +7.0% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.89 | Monitoring | -6.7% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.38 | Monitoring | -27.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.50 | Monitoring | -23.9% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.16 | Monitoring | -41.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $3.97 | -59.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 28 industry peers | $127.96 | +1201.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 28 industry peers | $122.67 | +1147.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.18 | +156.1% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 123.90 | 42.78 | 13.08 | 315.83 | 166.89 |
| P/FFO | 20.05 | 18.19 | 15.84 | 26.13 | 5.40 |
| P/TBV | 6.72 | 5.90 | 3.32 | 11.73 | 3.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.74 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 1.73 | 0.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 2.71 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEO's fair value at $25.18 vs the current price of $9.83, implying +156.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.77 (P10) to $41.55 (P90), with a median of $31.06.
NEO's current P/E of -2.3x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -107.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover NEO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.67 (range: $11.00 — $14.00), implying +28.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NEO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.