MODEL VERDICT
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NERV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $4.46 | -21.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $4.81 | -14.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.50 | -20.4% | 100% | 49 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 4.75 | 3.59 | 1.82 | 9.99 | 3.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates NERV's fair value at $4.50 vs the current price of $5.65, implying -20.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.00 (P10) to $8.36 (P90), with a median of $4.56.
NERV's current P/E of 29.7x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +26.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Premium.
7 analysts cover NERV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying -11.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NERV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.