Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)
Valuation Overview•Is Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 75/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
NIC demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($525M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with robust earnings compounding (14.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 31.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $102.1M | +6.4% | — | — | +23.6% | |
| EBITDA | $21.2M | — | +11.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $15.2M | +21.5% | +16.9% | — | +29.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.00 | +21.5% | +14.2% | +11.4% | +14.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $15.1M | +27.5% | +12.4% | +17.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 65.6% | 67.1% | 75.2% | 81.9% |
| Operating Margin | 31.7% | 28.2% | 31.3% | 32.7% |
| Net Margin | 25.4% | 22.0% | 23.9% | 24.2% |
| FCF Margin | 23.5% | 23.7% | 27.7% | 27.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.98 | $2.75 | -7.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $2.65 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.55 | $2.73 | +7.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.37 | $2.66 | +12.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.14 | $2.35 | +9.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.96 | $2.10 | +7.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.98 | $2.17 | +9.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.86 | $2.10 | +12.9% |
Total return is +29.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +8.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +30.4% | +23.0% | — |
| 1Y | +29.0% | +8.1% | +1.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +33.5% | +12.5% | +5.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +17.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +16.0% | +1.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.5x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) valuation, health, and returns.
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -36.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $93.39)
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $93.39 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $166.91 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $182.67 (implying +16.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 75/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.3%.
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. pays a 0.8% dividend yield, covered by a 12% payout ratio with 3 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.6% buyback yield.
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +6.4% 1Y revenue growth and +21.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +16.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. include: -18.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.90x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.