MODEL VERDICT
Nine Energy Service, Inc. (NINE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $8.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $8.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $8.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $7.26 | -25.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.61 | +317.8% | 100% | 38 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 24.99 | 21.79 | 17.48 | 35.69 | 9.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 61.66 | 8.96 | 6.00 | 161.14 | 75.76 |
| P/FFO | 5.44 | 4.65 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 1.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.79 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates NINE's fair value at $40.61 vs the current price of $9.72, implying +317.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 38/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NINE's current P/E of -7.8x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -131.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover NINE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +85.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NINE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.