MODEL VERDICT
National Research Corporation (NRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $19.53 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $19.08 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $18.62 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $18.75 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $15.88 | -18.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $20.51 | +5.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $50.64 | +159.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $8.51 | -56.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $43.89 | +124.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $5.50 | -71.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $17.79 | -8.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $17.62 | -9.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $31.15 | +59.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $9.17 | -53.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.31 | +14.2% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (-18.5%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.05 | 29.48 | 16.96 | 52.33 | 10.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.95 | 21.91 | 13.58 | 39.84 | 8.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.49 | 18.34 | 11.62 | 35.30 | 7.41 |
| P/FCF | 32.90 | 29.97 | 21.84 | 46.65 | 9.38 |
| P/FFO | 25.79 | 24.54 | 13.60 | 44.58 | 9.33 |
| P/TBV | 116.35 | 106.09 | 48.54 | 194.43 | 73.48 |
| P/AFFO | 37.53 | 34.30 | 26.94 | 50.81 | 10.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.48 | 17.08 | 12.47 | 51.43 | 14.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.77 | 6.57 | 2.93 | 13.22 | 3.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NRC's fair value at $22.31 vs the current price of $19.53, implying +14.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.95 (P10) to $24.04 (P90), with a median of $21.45.
NRC's current P/E of 37.6x compares to the industry median of 97.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -61.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for NRC.
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NRC trades at the 4290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17310.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.