MODEL VERDICT
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $46.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $45.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $45.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $44.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $42.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $25.15 | -46.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $20.93 | -55.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $97.05 | +107.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $29.69 | -36.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $24.46 | -47.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $32.32 | -30.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $86.46 | +85.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $15.49 | -66.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $12.92 | -72.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $70.17 | +50.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $32.96 | -29.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.00 | -10.1% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| Conservative (25%) | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 | $67 |
| Base Case (38.9%) | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
| Bull Case (53%) | $60 | $65 | $71 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.15 | 46.92 | 26.54 | 57.00 | 10.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.54 | 40.07 | 23.05 | 53.93 | 10.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.21 | 37.44 | 22.16 | 49.15 | 9.07 |
| P/FCF | 63.68 | 55.79 | 29.60 | 147.90 | 41.41 |
| P/FFO | 40.74 | 43.11 | 25.36 | 52.19 | 8.96 |
| P/TBV | 7.94 | 7.97 | 6.79 | 9.21 | 0.85 |
| P/AFFO | 45.16 | 47.07 | 26.16 | 63.18 | 11.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.61 | 7.69 | 6.34 | 9.03 | 0.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.63 | 6.98 | 4.78 | 8.38 | 1.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NSSC's fair value at $42.00 vs the current price of $46.72, implying -10.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.83 (P10) to $50.66 (P90), with a median of $43.06.
NSSC's current P/E of 39.3x compares to the industry median of 81.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -51.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover NSSC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.00 (range: $49.00 — $49.00), implying +4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 24.7% is 9.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.4%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$37. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NSSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2060.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.