MODEL VERDICT
Nucor Corporation (NUE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $226.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $214.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $195.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $189.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $186.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $263.27 | +16.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $214.33 | -5.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $200.33 | -11.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $206.98 | -8.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $222.73 | -1.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $191.06 | -15.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $198.85 | -12.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $198.85 | -12.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $196.17 | -13.2% | 100% | 62 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $216 | $233 | $249 | $266 | $282 |
| Conservative (17%) | $229 | $246 | $264 | $281 | $299 |
| Base Case (26.1%) | $247 | $266 | $284 | $303 | $322 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $264 | $285 | $305 | $325 | $346 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.97 | 13.59 | 4.58 | 22.54 | 7.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.93 | 9.98 | 3.53 | 18.79 | 5.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.89 | 7.20 | 3.21 | 10.53 | 2.89 |
| P/FCF | 13.64 | 10.90 | 4.27 | 34.54 | 10.85 |
| P/FFO | 7.89 | 8.23 | 4.00 | 11.68 | 2.90 |
| P/TBV | 2.50 | 2.52 | 1.94 | 3.14 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 37.66 | 12.52 | 5.16 | 132.55 | 54.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 2.29 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.76 | 1.26 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NUE's fair value at $196.17 vs the current price of $226.06, implying -13.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $196.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $172.72 (P10) to $217.79 (P90), with a median of $194.90.
NUE's current P/E of 30.1x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +12.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
32 analysts cover NUE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $222.83 (range: $180.00 — $245.00), implying -1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NUE trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NUE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 830.0% to approximately $207. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.