Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)
Valuation Overview•Is Newell Brands Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 22/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
NWL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-8.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 6.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | -5.0% | -8.7% | -5.2% | +2.0% | |
| EBITDA | $34.0M | — | +7.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$33.0M | -31.9% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.08 | -30.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$270.0M | -92.8% | — | -57.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 34.0% | 32.5% | 31.8% | 32.8% |
| Operating Margin | 6.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | -6.7% |
| Net Margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -0.7% | -6.8% |
| FCF Margin | 0.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 4.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.09 | $-0.05 | +44.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $0.18 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.18 | $0.17 | -5.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.01 | +85.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.14 | $0.16 | +14.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.21 | $0.36 | +71.4% |
Total return is -4.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -29.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +36.0% | +26.7% | — |
| 1Y | -4.4% | -29.4% | +5.1% |
| 3YCAGR | -11.4% | -30.6% | +10.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -22.1% | -34.7% | +9.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -13.1% | -26.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) valuation, health, and returns.
Newell Brands Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +82.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $8.99)
Newell Brands Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $8.99 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $4.09 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $5.15 (implying +4.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Newell Brands Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 22/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.3%.
Newell Brands Inc. pays a 5.8% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Newell Brands Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -5.0% 1Y revenue growth and -30.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -8.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 26 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +4.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Newell Brands Inc. include: -51.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.39x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.39x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.