MODEL VERDICT
Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $7.25 | +59.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $4.76 | +4.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $0.45 | -90.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $3.53 | -22.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $9.96 | +118.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $12.90 | +183.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $0.45 | -90.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.09 | +165.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.27 | 27.83 | 16.30 | 43.68 | 13.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 132.71 | 28.53 | 14.19 | 344.59 | 157.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.32 | 18.39 | 9.09 | 35.08 | 10.51 |
| P/FCF | 24.73 | 13.08 | 5.56 | 91.51 | 33.03 |
| P/FFO | 26.84 | 14.73 | 9.87 | 59.84 | 21.86 |
| P/AFFO | 24.22 | 28.29 | 14.21 | 30.16 | 8.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.58 | 1.55 | 0.65 | 2.31 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.22 | 0.96 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWL's fair value at $12.09 vs the current price of $4.55, implying +165.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.20 (P10) to $25.09 (P90), with a median of $13.80.
NWL's current P/E of -6.7x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -139.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover NWL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.50 (range: $4.00 — $9.00), implying +20.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NWL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.