MODEL VERDICT
Oil-Dri Corporation of America (ODC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $73.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $74.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $73.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $69.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $72.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $62.06 | -15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $49.40 | -32.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $86.30 | +17.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $35.19 | -52.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $71.03 | -3.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $57.43 | -21.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $254.94 | +247.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $31.72 | -56.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $28.14 | -61.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $85.94 | +17.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $29.80 | -59.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.91 | -18.3% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $66 | $74 | $82 | $90 | $99 |
| Conservative (15%) | $69 | $78 | $87 | $95 | $104 |
| Base Case (23.2%) | $74 | $83 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $79 | $89 | $99 | $109 | $119 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.87 | 16.01 | 12.88 | 38.84 | 9.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.15 | 15.62 | 8.98 | 35.87 | 8.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.70 | 9.98 | 7.88 | 11.38 | 1.19 |
| P/FCF | 19.46 | 21.80 | 8.34 | 27.35 | 7.16 |
| P/FFO | 10.80 | 11.24 | 7.25 | 13.70 | 2.21 |
| P/TBV | 2.63 | 2.13 | 1.49 | 4.60 | 1.24 |
| P/AFFO | 26.05 | 27.04 | 13.49 | 36.95 | 8.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.33 | 1.94 | 1.38 | 3.68 | 0.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 0.95 | 0.63 | 1.77 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ODC's fair value at $59.91 vs the current price of $73.32, implying -18.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.06 (P10) to $65.56 (P90), with a median of $57.82.
ODC's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -15.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ODC.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.8% is 5.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$55. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ODC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2560.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.