MODEL VERDICT
Organon & Co. (OGN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $8.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $8.05 | Pending | -1.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $42.86 | +487.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $79.63 | +992.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $17.39 | +138.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $99.15 | +1260.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $120.83 | +1557.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $116.72 | +1501.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $18.50 | +153.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.94 | +530.2% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $4 | $6 | $7 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
| Base Case (-39.0%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Bull Case (-53%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.31 | 5.71 | 3.61 | 9.96 | 2.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.96 | 9.21 | 1.46 | 10.06 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.31 | 7.63 | 1.14 | 8.10 | 2.92 |
| P/FCF | 8.47 | 6.72 | 3.92 | 16.54 | 5.54 |
| P/FFO | 4.22 | 3.46 | 2.94 | 6.31 | 1.41 |
| P/AFFO | 6.51 | 6.10 | 3.70 | 10.15 | 2.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 1.22 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates OGN's fair value at $45.94 vs the current price of $7.29, implying +530.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.30 (P10) to $58.27 (P90), with a median of $49.67.
OGN's current P/E of 10.1x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -58.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover OGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.50 (range: $5.00 — $8.00), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OGN trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (20.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 32470.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.