MODEL VERDICT
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $248.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $242.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $243.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $238.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $204.39 | Below threshold | +16.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $141.81 | -42.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $156.13 | -37.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $131.83 | -46.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $143.93 | -42.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $161.62 | -34.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $177.29 | -28.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $150.18 | -39.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $145.80 | -41.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $135.70 | -45.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $153.46 | -38.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.51 | -35.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $219 | $236 | $254 | $272 | $289 |
| Conservative (5%) | $225 | $243 | $261 | $280 | $298 |
| Base Case (0.6%) | $216 | $233 | $250 | $268 | $285 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $216 | $233 | $251 | $268 | $286 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.15 | 24.98 | 11.42 | 28.56 | 5.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.58 | 24.62 | 19.18 | 26.45 | 2.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.84 | 14.37 | 12.34 | 17.77 | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 21.39 | 20.82 | 17.71 | 27.38 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 16.23 | 16.41 | 9.41 | 19.15 | 3.28 |
| P/AFFO | 19.27 | 20.69 | 10.53 | 22.60 | 4.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.03 | 6.13 | 4.91 | 6.64 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.93 | 4.77 | 3.96 | 5.88 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates JNJ's fair value at $160.51 vs the current price of $248.43, implying -35.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $138.87 (P10) to $174.18 (P90), with a median of $156.25.
JNJ's current P/E of 42.9x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +88.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
39 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $229.33 (range: $190.00 — $265.00), implying -7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JNJ trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JNJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5450.0% to approximately $113. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.