MODEL VERDICT
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $227.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $227.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $234.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $238.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $238.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $191.40 | -15.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 14 industry peers | $187.81 | -17.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $141.75 | -37.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $167.52 | -26.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 14 industry peers | $201.03 | -11.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 13 industry peers | $197.88 | -12.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $165.54 | -27.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $157.81 | -30.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $141.45 | -37.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 13 industry peers | $167.52 | -26.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $175.85 | -22.6% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $195 | $213 | $230 | $248 | $266 |
| Conservative (5%) | $201 | $219 | $237 | $255 | $274 |
| Base Case (0.6%) | $192 | $210 | $227 | $245 | $262 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $193 | $210 | $228 | $245 | $263 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.15 | 24.98 | 11.42 | 28.56 | 5.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.58 | 24.62 | 19.18 | 26.45 | 2.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.84 | 14.37 | 12.34 | 17.77 | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 21.39 | 20.82 | 17.71 | 27.38 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 16.23 | 16.41 | 9.41 | 19.15 | 3.28 |
| P/AFFO | 19.27 | 20.69 | 10.53 | 22.60 | 4.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.03 | 6.13 | 4.91 | 6.64 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.93 | 4.77 | 3.96 | 5.88 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates JNJ's fair value at $175.85 vs the current price of $227.21, implying -22.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $175.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $164.55 (P10) to $190.54 (P90), with a median of $177.53.
JNJ's current P/E of 39.2x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +60.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
40 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $249.27 (range: $208.00 — $283.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JNJ trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JNJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5020.0% to approximately $113. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.