MODEL VERDICT
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $963.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $883.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $927.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $905.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $939.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $517.04 | -46.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 14 industry peers | $469.62 | -51.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $444.32 | -53.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $178.45 | -81.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 14 industry peers | $597.63 | -38.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 13 industry peers | $131.24 | -86.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $878.03 | -8.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $357.82 | -62.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $371.45 | -61.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $455.78 | -52.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 13 industry peers | $178.44 | -81.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $750.13 | -22.1% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $921 | $998 | $1075 | $1152 | $1229 |
| Conservative (19%) | $981 | $1063 | $1144 | $1226 | $1308 |
| Base Case (28.8%) | $1064 | $1153 | $1242 | $1330 | $1419 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $1148 | $1243 | $1339 | $1434 | $1530 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.05 | 47.22 | 15.12 | 100.50 | 27.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.40 | 42.57 | 22.99 | 77.97 | 18.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.26 | 32.00 | 19.26 | 44.58 | 9.17 |
| P/FCF | 331.48 | 62.23 | 36.13 | 1684.61 | 663.46 |
| P/FFO | 42.02 | 43.47 | 13.18 | 77.80 | 21.52 |
| P/AFFO | 67.18 | 58.79 | 15.35 | 158.59 | 48.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 38.45 | 36.37 | 27.73 | 48.90 | 9.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.35 | 12.18 | 5.64 | 15.49 | 4.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LLY's fair value at $750.13 vs the current price of $963.33, implying -22.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $750.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $505.92 (P10) to $1382.87 (P90), with a median of $769.44.
LLY's current P/E of 42.0x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +116.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover LLY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1258.47 (range: $1070.00 — $1350.00), implying +30.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (33), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 35.0% is 10.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (24.9%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$835. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LLY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1330.0% to approximately $835. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.