MODEL VERDICT
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1052.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1009.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1040.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1025.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1063.56 | Below threshold | -1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $418.11 | -60.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $360.94 | -65.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $266.62 | -74.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $8.60 | -99.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $320.53 | -69.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $111.24 | -89.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $235.56 | -77.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $252.64 | -76.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $274.44 | -73.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $8.61 | -99.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $397.12 | -62.3% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 76× | 83× | 90× (Current) | 97× | 104× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $912 | $996 | $1080 | $1164 | $1248 |
| Conservative (5%) | $934 | $1021 | $1107 | $1193 | $1279 |
| Base Case (6.1%) | $944 | $1031 | $1118 | $1205 | $1292 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $964 | $1053 | $1141 | $1230 | $1319 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.65 | 47.22 | 15.12 | 100.50 | 28.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.45 | 42.57 | 22.99 | 77.97 | 19.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.98 | 29.16 | 16.06 | 44.58 | 10.79 |
| P/FCF | 321.51 | 48.31 | 36.13 | 1684.61 | 667.94 |
| P/FFO | 39.34 | 36.95 | 13.18 | 77.80 | 22.46 |
| P/AFFO | 62.29 | 45.26 | 15.35 | 158.59 | 49.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 34.82 | 32.26 | 10.96 | 48.90 | 14.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.03 | 9.30 | 5.57 | 15.49 | 4.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LLY's fair value at $397.12 vs the current price of $1052.20, implying -62.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $397.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $372.02 (P10) to $549.51 (P90), with a median of $459.80.
LLY's current P/E of 89.9x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +294.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
44 analysts cover LLY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1214.28 (range: $830.00 — $1350.00), implying +15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 31.0% is 8.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (22.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$423. (2) Multiple compression: LLY trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (49.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LLY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5980.0% to approximately $423. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.