MODEL VERDICT
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $206.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $198.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $208.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $208.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $208.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $183.79 | -11.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $121.81 | -41.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $45.86 | -77.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $163.43 | -20.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $192.84 | -6.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $129.74 | -37.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $85.76 | -58.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $130.21 | -37.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $45.87 | -77.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $163.35 | -20.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $138.23 | -33.1% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 73× | 80× | 87× (Current) | 94× | 101× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $176 | $193 | $210 | $227 | $244 |
| Conservative (5%) | $182 | $199 | $216 | $234 | $251 |
| Base Case (-2.7%) | $168 | $184 | $201 | $217 | $233 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $167 | $183 | $199 | $215 | $231 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.04 | 39.39 | 16.77 | 96.41 | 30.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.24 | 38.01 | 15.53 | 57.84 | 16.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.68 | 14.46 | 10.57 | 21.54 | 3.66 |
| P/FCF | 13.80 | 11.85 | 10.29 | 22.75 | 4.67 |
| P/FFO | 19.07 | 16.17 | 11.99 | 32.78 | 7.52 |
| P/AFFO | 20.49 | 17.42 | 12.48 | 36.35 | 8.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 33.20 | 16.62 | 13.69 | 93.66 | 34.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.91 | 4.95 | 3.91 | 6.63 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABBV's fair value at $138.23 vs the current price of $206.60, implying -33.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $138.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $129.50 (P10) to $166.83 (P90), with a median of $147.99.
ABBV's current P/E of 87.2x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +350.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover ABBV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $256.64 (range: $223.00 — $294.00), implying +24.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ABBV trades at the 9330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (47.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABBV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 870.0% to approximately $225. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.