MODEL VERDICT
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $232.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $224.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $231.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $222.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $220.08 | Below threshold | +1.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $178.33 | -23.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $86.45 | -62.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $54.42 | -76.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $177.24 | -23.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $59.12 | -74.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $189.52 | -18.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $102.62 | -55.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $129.31 | -44.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $56.01 | -75.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $188.98 | -18.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $116.54 | -49.8% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 81× | 89× | 97× (Current) | 105× | 113× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $197 | $217 | $236 | $256 | $275 |
| Conservative (5%) | $203 | $223 | $243 | $263 | $284 |
| Base Case (-14.7%) | $165 | $181 | $198 | $214 | $230 |
| Bull Case (-20%) | $155 | $171 | $186 | $201 | $217 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.84 | 25.05 | 16.77 | 74.35 | 21.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.01 | 26.82 | 15.53 | 57.84 | 15.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.38 | 14.46 | 10.57 | 21.54 | 4.47 |
| P/FCF | 12.15 | 11.14 | 10.29 | 17.67 | 2.54 |
| P/FFO | 17.12 | 16.17 | 11.99 | 24.88 | 4.56 |
| P/AFFO | 18.28 | 17.42 | 12.48 | 26.95 | 5.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 33.20 | 16.62 | 13.69 | 93.66 | 34.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.59 | 4.35 | 3.91 | 5.59 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABBV's fair value at $116.54 vs the current price of $232.03, implying -49.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $116.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.01 (P10) to $146.82 (P90), with a median of $127.45.
ABBV's current P/E of 97.1x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +326.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
39 analysts cover ABBV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $256.15 (range: $223.00 — $299.00), implying +10.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ABBV trades at the 9290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABBV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4620.0% to approximately $339. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.