MODEL VERDICT
Novartis AG (NVS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $168.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $162.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $163.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $158.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $141.54 | Below threshold | +11.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $108.86 | -35.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $129.90 | -23.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $163.70 | -2.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $159.42 | -5.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $146.67 | -13.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $207.17 | +22.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $200.23 | +18.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $104.52 | -38.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $110.40 | -34.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $178.52 | +5.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $169.98 | +0.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.55 | -10.7% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $145 | $160 | $176 | $191 | $206 |
| Conservative (10%) | $150 | $166 | $182 | $198 | $214 |
| Base Case (15.4%) | $158 | $174 | $191 | $207 | $224 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $165 | $182 | $200 | $217 | $234 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.90 | 19.18 | 7.79 | 29.09 | 7.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.03 | 21.71 | 8.12 | 26.20 | 6.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.25 | 13.16 | 10.57 | 15.14 | 1.48 |
| P/FCF | 16.45 | 15.72 | 14.34 | 18.54 | 1.78 |
| P/FFO | 11.44 | 11.83 | 6.32 | 14.11 | 2.91 |
| P/AFFO | 12.89 | 12.84 | 6.55 | 17.40 | 3.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.01 | 3.74 | 2.76 | 5.79 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.32 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 4.92 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVS's fair value at $150.55 vs the current price of $168.62, implying -10.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $125.33 (P10) to $159.08 (P90), with a median of $141.83.
NVS's current P/E of 23.5x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +3.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
25 analysts cover NVS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $127.00 (range: $112.00 — $143.00), implying -24.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVS trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1140.0% to approximately $149. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.