MODEL VERDICT
O-I Glass, Inc. (OI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $16.06 | +69.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $31.28 | +229.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $14.34 | +51.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $29.32 | +209.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $26.18 | +175.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $30.40 | +220.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $14.26 | +50.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.91 | +130.8% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.34 | 7.58 | 4.51 | 12.94 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.39 | 16.05 | 6.30 | 137.20 | 46.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.93 | 6.08 | 5.07 | 6.33 | 0.42 |
| P/FCF | 13.15 | 13.22 | 6.67 | 19.49 | 5.24 |
| P/FFO | 9.70 | 4.41 | 2.54 | 42.09 | 14.38 |
| P/AFFO | 6.53 | 5.28 | 4.65 | 9.64 | 2.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.35 | 1.72 | 1.39 | 4.71 | 1.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates OI's fair value at $21.91 vs the current price of $9.49, implying +130.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.44 (P10) to $33.54 (P90), with a median of $21.68.
OI's current P/E of -11.3x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -172.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover OI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.40 (range: $14.00 — $21.00), implying +83.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.