MODEL VERDICT
Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $76.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $75.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $78.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $77.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $74.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $82.68 | +7.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $60.13 | -21.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $136.36 | +77.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $89.53 | +16.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $97.78 | +27.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $56.52 | -26.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $43.83 | -43.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $136.62 | +77.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.41 | +17.5% | 100% | 88 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.62 | 12.67 | 11.22 | 14.27 | 1.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.30 | 8.96 | 7.89 | 40.86 | 12.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.90 | 7.84 | 7.35 | 8.50 | 0.43 |
| P/FCF | 11.47 | 10.73 | 5.93 | 19.90 | 4.43 |
| P/FFO | 19.87 | 11.12 | 9.83 | 74.46 | 24.08 |
| P/AFFO | 43.39 | 12.19 | 10.80 | 228.53 | 81.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.66 | 3.77 | 1.27 | 5.30 | 1.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.11 | 0.96 | 1.20 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates OMC's fair value at $90.41 vs the current price of $76.94, implying +17.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.62 (P10) to $104.46 (P90), with a median of $89.77.
OMC's current P/E of -284.9x compares to the industry median of 16.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -1823.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover OMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $93.67 (range: $83.00 — $108.00), implying +21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OMC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.