MODEL VERDICT
Omnicell, Inc. (OMCL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $37.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $38.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $34.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $36.64 | -14.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $40.34 | -5.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $1.30 | -97.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $36.05 | -15.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $2.43 | -94.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $40.79 | -4.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $36.72 | -14.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $30.82 | -28.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $1.31 | -96.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $36.23 | -15.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.74 | -7.2% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 812× | 889× | 966× (Current) | 1043× | 1120× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (-43.1%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Bull Case (-58%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 323.06 | 163.54 | 57.15 | 1022.57 | 364.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 1312.61 | 120.53 | 44.58 | 6150.20 | 2704.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.97 | 25.11 | 23.01 | 50.69 | 12.41 |
| P/FCF | 44.37 | 40.08 | 12.19 | 135.78 | 42.37 |
| P/FFO | 31.79 | 25.98 | 20.13 | 53.14 | 13.97 |
| P/TBV | 50.58 | 11.75 | 6.49 | 260.74 | 93.17 |
| P/AFFO | 63.86 | 55.01 | 31.29 | 107.31 | 24.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.42 | 2.05 | 1.43 | 7.54 | 2.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.48 | 1.85 | 1.48 | 7.64 | 2.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OMCL's fair value at $39.74 vs the current price of $42.80, implying -7.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.67 (P10) to $58.37 (P90), with a median of $47.21.
OMCL's current P/E of 966.1x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +3187.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 323.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover OMCL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $57.20 (range: $49.00 — $70.00), implying +33.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OMCL trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (323.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OMCL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5050.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.