MODEL VERDICT
OMS Energy Technologies Inc. (OMSE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 37 analyst estimates | $18.09 | +309.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 35 industry peers | $24.66 | +457.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 31 industry peers | $12.77 | +188.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 37 industry peers | $25.57 | +478.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 32 industry peers | $16.52 | +273.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $25.06 | +467.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 32 industry peers | $13.22 | +199.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.34 | +360.1% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $7 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $7 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates OMSE's fair value at $20.34 vs the current price of $4.42, implying +360.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.58 (P10) to $22.15 (P90), with a median of $19.29.
OMSE's current P/E of 4.2x compares to the industry median of 23.3x (35 peers in the group). This represents a -82.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for OMSE.
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OMSE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1180.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.