MODEL VERDICT
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $103.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $98.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $83.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $72.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $68.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $122.64 | +19.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $46.64 | -54.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $23.62 | -77.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $156.32 | +51.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $118.40 | +14.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $102.39 | -0.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $84.65 | -17.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $72.55 | -29.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $25.29 | -75.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $156.32 | +51.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $92.09 | -10.6% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 299× | 327× | 355× (Current) | 383× | 411× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $88 | $97 | $105 | $113 | $122 |
| Conservative (5%) | $91 | $100 | $108 | $117 | $125 |
| Base Case (-12.3%) | $76 | $83 | $90 | $97 | $105 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.15 | 29.92 | 14.68 | 186.72 | 61.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.06 | 24.75 | 11.50 | 116.80 | 37.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.41 | 12.13 | 9.71 | 16.92 | 3.13 |
| P/FCF | 52.45 | 23.37 | 15.72 | 168.75 | 56.63 |
| P/FFO | 16.00 | 13.36 | 11.39 | 27.63 | 5.72 |
| P/TBV | 7.65 | 6.55 | 3.91 | 13.81 | 3.55 |
| P/AFFO | 29.81 | 28.82 | 17.93 | 47.87 | 10.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.10 | 3.85 | 2.90 | 6.55 | 1.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.48 | 3.72 | 1.84 | 4.52 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ON's fair value at $92.09 vs the current price of $103.03, implying -10.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $92.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.93 (P10) to $122.41 (P90), with a median of $97.07.
ON's current P/E of 355.3x compares to the industry median of 81.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +336.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover ON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.40 (range: $51.00 — $75.00), implying -39.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ON trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (53.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3210.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.