MODEL VERDICT
Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $1.53 | -85.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $2.00 | -80.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.13 | +366.4% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.11 | 12.96 | 5.46 | 17.90 | 6.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.52 | 2.04 | 1.15 | 12.64 | 4.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 401.29 | 78.90 | 5.14 | 1593.35 | 632.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONDS's fair value at $48.13 vs the current price of $10.32, implying +366.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
ONDS's current P/E of -16.9x compares to the industry median of 59.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -128.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover ONDS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.56 (range: $10.00 — $22.00), implying +60.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ONDS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.