Orion Properties Inc. (ONL)
Valuation Overview•Is Orion Properties Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 21/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
ONL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-10.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-47.9%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.3M | -10.4% | -10.8% | +22.5% | — | |
| EBITDA | $9.8M | — | -24.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$13.6M | -35.2% | -12.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.24 | -34.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$24.5M | -188.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 56.5% | 61.8% | 67.8% | 73.9% |
| Operating Margin | -47.9% | -3.7% | 2.4% | 11.9% |
| Net Margin | -98.4% | -62.1% | -58.5% | -38.2% |
| FCF Margin | -30.7% | 12.1% | 28.7% | 42.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.12 | $-0.24 | -100.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.13 | $-0.64 | -392.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.13 | $-1.23 | -846.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $-0.45 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $-0.17 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $-0.59 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $-0.18 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $-0.60 | — |
Total return is +27.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +6.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +23.0% | +15.7% | — |
| 1Y | +27.4% | +6.5% | +3.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -18.8% | -35.9% | +12.0% |
| 5YCAGR | -30.5% | -41.6% | +5.2% |
| 10YCAGR | -16.6% | -30.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Orion Properties Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Orion Properties Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $4.44. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Orion Properties Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 21/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.1%.
Orion Properties Inc. pays a 5.5% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.3% buyback yield.
Orion Properties Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -10.4% 1Y revenue growth and -34.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -10.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 0% of recent quarters with a -7-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Orion Properties Inc. include: -36.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.02x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.