MODEL VERDICT
Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $5.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $5.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $5.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $4.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $4.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $2.49 | -54.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $29.20 | +436.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $13.99 | +157.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.48 | +19.1% | 100% | 56 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 2.59 | 2.51 | 1.05 | 4.31 | 1.67 |
| P/TBV | 2.57 | 2.36 | 0.68 | 4.46 | 1.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.32 | 0.67 | 4.45 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 1.08 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPEN's fair value at $6.48 vs the current price of $5.44, implying +19.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.53 (P10) to $13.31 (P90), with a median of $9.88.
OPEN's current P/E of -3.2x compares to the industry median of 47.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -106.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover OPEN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.50 (range: $5.00 — $8.00), implying +19.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OPEN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.