MODEL VERDICT
Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.39 | Pending | +4.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $6.61 | +157.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $2.80 | +8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $5.39 | +109.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $13.08 | +408.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $13.08 | +408.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $2.56 | -0.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.15 | +178.1% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (7%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.00 | 34.53 | 13.20 | 109.65 | 38.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.00 | 23.35 | 16.93 | 44.34 | 12.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.46 | 15.17 | 9.36 | 24.05 | 5.23 |
| P/FCF | 74.64 | 82.85 | 40.15 | 100.90 | 31.20 |
| P/FFO | 17.73 | 15.13 | 8.94 | 32.99 | 9.38 |
| P/TBV | 10.41 | 2.57 | 1.22 | 48.29 | 17.02 |
| P/AFFO | 64.64 | 53.64 | 11.00 | 134.72 | 55.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.67 | 2.25 | 1.09 | 8.03 | 2.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.56 | 1.25 | 0.79 | 2.64 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates ORGO's fair value at $7.15 vs the current price of $2.57, implying +178.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.36 (P10) to $8.52 (P90), with a median of $6.88.
ORGO's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -8.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.0x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
5 analysts cover ORGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +250.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ORGO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3460.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.