Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)
Valuation Overview•Is Orion Digital Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 39/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
ORIO struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-4.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.9M | -4.4% | -0.4% | +24.7% | +4.6% | |
| EBITDA | $3.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$744K | +37.7% | +62.8% | — | +8.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.03 | +35.7% | — | — | +22.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8M | +529.9% | — | -14.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 71.4% | 70.0% | 71.4% | 77.7% |
| Operating Margin | -4.1% | -5.5% | -24.8% | -14.0% |
| Net Margin | -25.4% | -19.7% | -71.4% | -54.8% |
| FCF Margin | 9.0% | 11.0% | -17.1% | 9.6% |
Total return is -51.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -61.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -31.9% | -39.5% | — |
| 1Y | -51.5% | -61.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -16.9% | -36.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -47.8% | -57.3% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -11.6% | -24.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 29.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Orion Digital Corp. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Orion Digital Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $1.90. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Orion Digital Corp. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 39/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -2.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -1.9%.
Orion Digital Corp. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 3.0% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -1.3% in the last 12 months.
Orion Digital Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -4.4% 1Y revenue growth and +35.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Orion Digital Corp. include: -51.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.34x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.34x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.