MODEL VERDICT
OSI Systems, Inc. (OSIS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $282.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $292.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $309.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $305.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $293.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $278.22 | -1.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $290.23 | +2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $212.63 | -24.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $75.36 | -73.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $189.58 | -32.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $59.59 | -78.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $204.68 | -27.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $275.85 | -2.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $314.85 | +11.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $246.00 | -12.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $75.65 | -73.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.87 | -28.5% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $241 | $269 | $297 | $325 | $353 |
| Conservative (11%) | $251 | $280 | $309 | $338 | $367 |
| Base Case (16.6%) | $264 | $295 | $325 | $355 | $386 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $277 | $309 | $341 | $373 | $405 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.39 | 23.13 | 12.33 | 29.28 | 5.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.39 | 18.74 | 13.54 | 22.91 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.11 | 14.54 | 10.91 | 18.99 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 35.23 | 28.34 | 15.64 | 78.11 | 23.50 |
| P/FFO | 15.71 | 15.58 | 9.23 | 22.68 | 4.06 |
| P/TBV | 10.89 | 9.41 | 7.80 | 16.89 | 3.20 |
| P/AFFO | 19.49 | 19.60 | 11.50 | 25.87 | 4.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.20 | 3.05 | 2.23 | 4.61 | 0.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.71 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 2.56 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OSIS's fair value at $201.87 vs the current price of $282.50, implying -28.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.18 (P10) to $283.14 (P90), with a median of $209.42.
OSIS's current P/E of 32.4x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +32.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover OSIS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $293.50 (range: $292.00 — $295.00), implying +3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OSIS trades at the 2190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OSIS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3660.0% to approximately $179. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.