MODEL VERDICT
OraSure Technologies, Inc. (OSUR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 25 industry peers | $9.43 | +234.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 25 industry peers | $15.31 | +442.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $8.93 | +216.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 38 industry peers | $5.11 | +81.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 26 industry peers | $9.48 | +236.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.75 | +813.1% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.51 | 29.74 | 11.39 | 35.39 | 12.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.50 | 22.58 | 7.67 | 55.24 | 24.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 77.58 | 18.40 | 6.21 | 223.52 | 94.53 |
| P/FCF | 264.29 | 16.85 | 4.65 | 1018.83 | 503.07 |
| P/FFO | 18.62 | 20.47 | 8.18 | 27.21 | 9.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.92 | 0.76 | 2.81 | 0.68 |
| P/AFFO | 26.08 | 33.12 | 9.49 | 35.62 | 14.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.63 | 0.65 | 2.58 | 0.62 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.56 | 2.68 | 0.90 | 4.16 | 1.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates OSUR's fair value at $25.75 vs the current price of $2.82, implying +813.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.63 (P10) to $108.44 (P90), with a median of $36.06.
OSUR's current P/E of -10.8x compares to the industry median of 33.6x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -132.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover OSUR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $4.00 — $4.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OSUR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.