MODEL VERDICT
Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $131.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $123.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $126.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $123.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $113.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $190.08 | +44.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $206.49 | +56.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $186.31 | +41.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $109.50 | -17.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $197.12 | +49.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $122.41 | -7.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $381.46 | +189.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $144.77 | +9.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $131.57 | -0.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $186.17 | +41.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $109.50 | -17.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $300.76 | +128.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $107 | $127 | $146 | $166 | $185 |
| Conservative (15%) | $113 | $134 | $154 | $175 | $195 |
| Base Case (23.6%) | $121 | $143 | $165 | $187 | $209 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $129 | $153 | $176 | $200 | $224 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.04 | 64.11 | 22.98 | 183.84 | 56.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 61.44 | 45.09 | 17.20 | 141.10 | 43.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.89 | 37.51 | 14.38 | 109.56 | 33.41 |
| P/FCF | 93.25 | 79.07 | 33.84 | 198.03 | 58.13 |
| P/FFO | 61.51 | 48.26 | 17.81 | 133.92 | 40.59 |
| P/TBV | 23.87 | 25.43 | 7.81 | 43.68 | 13.04 |
| P/AFFO | 109.48 | 76.08 | 25.36 | 256.60 | 81.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 21.40 | 21.43 | 7.32 | 40.20 | 11.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.31 | 13.13 | 6.13 | 31.33 | 9.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAYC's fair value at $300.76 vs the current price of $131.90, implying +128.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $300.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $236.75 (P10) to $391.46 (P90), with a median of $310.96.
PAYC's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -29.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 81.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
36 analysts cover PAYC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $149.36 (range: $115.00 — $195.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAYC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 42400.0% to approximately $691. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.