MODEL VERDICT
PureCycle Technologies, Inc. (PCT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $7.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $7.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $6.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $6.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $5.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $0.65 | -91.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $0.08 | -99.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.52 | -93.4% | 100% | 34 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.91 | 3.36 | 1.58 | 33.78 | 12.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.91 | 3.36 | 1.58 | 33.78 | 12.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCT's fair value at $0.52 vs the current price of $7.86, implying -93.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 34/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
PCT's current P/E of -6.5x compares to the industry median of 33.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -119.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover PCT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +14.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 34/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PCT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.