MODEL VERDICT
Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $11.14 | +1.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $8.94 | -18.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $6.15 | -43.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $8.19 | -25.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 13 industry peers | $10.93 | +0.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $8.52 | -22.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $11.14 | +1.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.48 | +23.3% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (9%) | $9 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.53 | 26.42 | 17.59 | 62.95 | 17.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.19 | 18.11 | 12.49 | 84.62 | 32.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.63 | 47.16 | 18.19 | 76.83 | 23.98 |
| P/FCF | 186.10 | 47.15 | 21.49 | 628.61 | 295.94 |
| P/FFO | 27.93 | 22.32 | 16.09 | 49.61 | 12.19 |
| P/TBV | 2.89 | 2.37 | 1.92 | 4.51 | 0.97 |
| P/AFFO | 34.77 | 37.90 | 18.54 | 44.76 | 11.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.77 | 2.36 | 1.86 | 4.04 | 0.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.57 | 11.01 | 10.18 | 20.56 | 4.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCYO's fair value at $13.48 vs the current price of $10.93, implying +23.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.83 (P10) to $18.63 (P90), with a median of $14.40.
PCYO's current P/E of 20.2x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -1.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover PCYO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PCYO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.