MODEL VERDICT
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $325.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $329.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $332.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $332.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $329.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $92.96 | -71.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $109.50 | -66.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $151.33 | -53.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $106.75 | -67.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $112.21 | -65.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $117.14 | -64.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $137.12 | -57.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $144.53 | -55.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $150.25 | -53.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $106.47 | -67.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $637.19 | +95.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $282 | $310 | $338 | $367 | $395 |
| Conservative (7%) | $289 | $318 | $347 | $375 | $404 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $298 | $328 | $358 | $388 | $418 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $308 | $339 | $369 | $400 | $431 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 602.35 | 122.59 | 68.79 | 2052.29 | 846.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 448.60 | 125.60 | 59.71 | 1521.75 | 615.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 343.65 | 193.49 | 59.25 | 1234.78 | 446.94 |
| P/FCF | 391.15 | 94.98 | 63.31 | 1311.34 | 613.98 |
| P/FFO | 229.59 | 176.30 | 62.60 | 501.75 | 179.36 |
| P/TBV | 11.45 | 10.61 | 9.53 | 15.62 | 2.21 |
| P/AFFO | 4161.68 | 368.50 | 92.95 | 21257.77 | 8439.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.56 | 8.56 | 8.10 | 12.27 | 1.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.34 | 9.94 | 7.81 | 14.56 | 2.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEN's fair value at $637.19 vs the current price of $325.33, implying +95.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $637.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $349.40 (P10) to $1213.17 (P90), with a median of $736.19.
PEN's current P/E of 72.0x compares to the industry median of 33.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +115.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 602.3x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover PEN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $371.92 (range: $349.00 — $388.00), implying +14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.7% is 8.6 percentage points above the 5-year average (4.0%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$871. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16760.0% to approximately $871. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.