MODEL VERDICT
Koninklijke Philips N.V. (PHG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $26.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $27.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $25.89 | -1.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $48.36 | +84.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $27.74 | +6.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $21.30 | -18.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $30.34 | +16.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $18.43 | -29.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $74.20 | +183.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $76.68 | +193.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $27.72 | +6.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $21.30 | -18.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.04 | +53.0% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Base Case (-5.4%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.02 | 38.83 | 29.12 | 53.30 | 10.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.23 | 30.69 | 22.02 | 62.44 | 17.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.13 | 20.66 | 12.30 | 280.10 | 98.84 |
| P/FCF | 21.27 | 22.26 | 11.05 | 29.19 | 6.34 |
| P/FFO | 20.55 | 21.05 | 6.98 | 34.40 | 9.75 |
| P/TBV | 104.19 | 85.28 | 53.95 | 173.34 | 61.90 |
| P/AFFO | 63.84 | 35.33 | 8.67 | 214.38 | 85.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.41 | 2.24 | 1.07 | 4.03 | 1.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.46 | 0.80 | 2.77 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PHG's fair value at $40.04 vs the current price of $26.16, implying +53.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.56 (P10) to $75.42 (P90), with a median of $43.19.
PHG's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -19.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.0x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
22 analysts cover PHG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PHG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7260.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.