MODEL VERDICT
PLDT Inc. (PHI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $1759.50 | +8741.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $1938.25 | +9639.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $2594.44 | +12937.4% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1013.95 | +4995.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $1133.59 | +5596.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $717.35 | +3504.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $471.57 | +2269.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $523.70 | +2531.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $1761.06 | +8749.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1307.96 | +6472.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $723 | $1012 | $1301 | $1590 | $1879 |
| Conservative (5%) | $744 | $1042 | $1339 | $1637 | $1934 |
| Base Case (4.8%) | $743 | $1040 | $1337 | $1634 | $1931 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $755 | $1057 | $1358 | $1660 | $1962 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.47 | 0.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.54 | 5.70 | 4.27 | 6.82 | 0.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.05 | 1.93 | 1.56 | 3.02 | 0.52 |
| P/FCF | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.86 | 0.30 |
| P/FFO | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/TBV | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 3.89 | 4.34 | 2.29 | 5.12 | 1.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates PHI's fair value at $1307.96 vs the current price of $19.90, implying +6472.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1307.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $840.68 (P10) to $1311.20 (P90), with a median of $1061.85.
PHI's current P/E of 8.6x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -30.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover PHI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PHI trades at the 3030th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PHI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5580.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.