MODEL VERDICT
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $119.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $127.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $126.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $120.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $120.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $157.28 | +31.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $133.49 | +12.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $144.16 | +20.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $136.84 | +14.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $150.77 | +26.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $146.93 | +23.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $150.78 | +26.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $116.85 | -2.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $100.67 | -15.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $144.16 | +20.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $161.09 | +35.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.75 | +18.1% | 100% | 87 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $83 | $107 | $130 | $154 | $178 |
| Conservative (11%) | $86 | $111 | $135 | $160 | $185 |
| Base Case (16.5%) | $91 | $117 | $143 | $168 | $194 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $95 | $122 | $150 | $177 | $204 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.22 | 8.32 | 4.14 | 10.60 | 2.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.77 | 6.84 | 3.63 | 9.47 | 1.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.55 | 6.79 | 3.55 | 9.11 | 1.71 |
| P/FCF | 13.05 | 13.38 | 6.73 | 19.35 | 4.12 |
| P/FFO | 7.85 | 7.89 | 4.00 | 10.04 | 2.05 |
| P/TBV | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.22 | 2.23 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 8.21 | 8.21 | 4.17 | 10.59 | 2.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.21 | 2.20 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 1.42 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PHM's fair value at $140.75 vs the current price of $119.21, implying +18.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.13 (P10) to $144.12 (P90), with a median of $131.37.
PHM's current P/E of 10.7x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -17.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
44 analysts cover PHM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $141.22 (range: $115.00 — $162.00), implying +18.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PHM trades at the 3680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PHM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1660.0% to approximately $139. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.