Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$142.57
→
Intrinsic$176.07
+23%
$107.39$176.07$312.61
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
PLD shows 23% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $143, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $107 → Bull $313. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $229 | $251 | $275 | $300 |
| 10% | $146 | $161 | $176 | $193 |
| 12% | $102 | $113 | $124 | $136 |
| 14% | $75 | $83 | $92 | $102 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($313) offers 119% upside at 24% growth, 8% discount
- 19% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (15%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($107) implies 25% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$7.56B
Year 2$9.05B
Year 3$10.84B
Year 4$12.98B
Year 5$15.54B
Terminal$246.31B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate19.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$6.31BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.