MODEL VERDICT
Prologis, Inc. (PLD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $142.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $141.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $138.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $140.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $129.40 | Below threshold | +6.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $69.36 | -51.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $97.87 | -31.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $109.33 | -23.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $107.90 | -24.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $111.97 | -21.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $67.96 | -52.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $72.03 | -49.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.02 | -17.2% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $126 | $138 | $151 | $163 | $176 |
| Conservative (7%) | $129 | $142 | $155 | $167 | $180 |
| Base Case (10.8%) | $133 | $147 | $160 | $173 | $187 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $138 | $152 | $165 | $179 | $193 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.33 | 37.14 | 21.05 | 51.11 | 10.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.20 | 35.61 | 21.60 | 45.92 | 8.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.47 | 23.86 | 17.23 | 31.33 | 4.68 |
| P/FCF | 34.16 | 30.92 | 20.52 | 52.98 | 12.12 |
| P/FFO | 21.02 | 22.13 | 13.35 | 29.28 | 5.54 |
| P/TBV | 2.15 | 2.17 | 1.37 | 3.56 | 0.71 |
| P/AFFO | 28.40 | 25.11 | 20.34 | 43.03 | 9.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.12 | 2.13 | 1.34 | 3.50 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.06 | 15.81 | 12.29 | 27.79 | 5.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLD's fair value at $118.02 vs the current price of $142.57, implying -17.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.76 (P10) to $143.61 (P90), with a median of $122.09.
PLD's current P/E of 35.6x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +32.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover PLD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $136.00 (range: $119.00 — $155.00), implying -4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PLD trades at the 7330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (35.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (49.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3460.0% to approximately $192. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.