MODEL VERDICT
Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $3.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $3.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.79 | Pending | +90.5% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.87 | Pending | +70.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.89 | Pending | +55.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $3.19 | +2.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $1.22 | -60.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $1.71 | -45.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.30 | -26.1% | 100% | 47 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.51 | 2.86 | 0.99 | 25.34 | 9.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.14 | 2.48 | 0.92 | 20.52 | 7.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.15 | 3.26 | 2.91 | 31.37 | 12.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLUG's fair value at $2.30 vs the current price of $3.11, implying -26.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.00 (P10) to $3.57 (P90), with a median of $2.71.
PLUG's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 26.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
38 analysts cover PLUG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.91 (range: $1.00 — $7.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (16), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PLUG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.