MODEL VERDICT
Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $8.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $8.62 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $10.03 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $8.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $8.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $1.53 | -81.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $0.88 | -89.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.18 | -85.5% | 100% | 31 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates PONY's fair value at $1.18 vs the current price of $8.15, implying -85.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 31/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.78 (P10) to $1.80 (P90), with a median of $1.26.
PONY's current P/E of -23.3x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -224.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover PONY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $15.00 — $30.00), implying +182.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 31/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PONY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.